Employment

The Economic Week Ahead: May 1-5

Apr 29, 2023 1 min read paid

This is another big week for earnings reports, which have been mostly better than expected so far. In addition, the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his après-meeting presser at 2:30 p.m. In our opinion, it's a toss-up whether the Fed will do none or one 25bps rate hike. But our subjective odds of an announced pause is 75% either

Ed Yardeni

Falling Interest Rates

Apr 4, 2023 2 min read

Interest rates continued to fall today after Jamie Dimon, who is the President, CEO & Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, warned that the banking crisis is "not yet over" and will cause "repercussions for years to come." He did so in his annual letter to stockholders. With all those titles, he must know what he is talking about. He observed that potential losses from held-to-maturity bonds,

Ed Yardeni

A Dish of Mixed Nuts

Mar 28, 2023 1 min read paid

Today's economic indicators show that the labor market remains tight, while manufacturing activity remains weak. That mix supports our soft-landing scenario with inflation continuing to moderate and the Fed done (or almost done) tightening. Consider the following: (1) Consumer confidence. The labor market remains strong according to the March survey of consumer confidence conducted by the Conference Board. The “jobs hard to get” response remained very low at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, March 5-10

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report to two congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is likely to say that although there are signs of disinflation, inflation remains too high and the Fed still has lots of work to do to bring it down. Powell's favorite labor market indicator, i.e., job openings, will be out on Wednesday for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3

Jan 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating. This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to

Ed Yardeni

Strong Labor Market Frustrates Fed

Jan 5, 2023 2 min read paid

On August 27, 2020, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole explained why on that same day the Fed issued a revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. The statement and Powell's remarks stressed that monetary policy would focus on reviving the labor market after it was weakened by the pandemic. Powell said: "With regard to the employment side of our mandate,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 3-6

Jan 1, 2023 2 min read paid

The first week of 2023 will be action packed, especially with so many labor market indicators coming out. If they are too strong, investors will fear higher-for-longer interest rate hikes by the Fed. If they are too weak, investors will fear an impending recession. The first scenario is bad for stocks and bonds. The second scenario is bad for stocks but good for bonds. If the upcoming batch of labor

Ed Yardeni

Sweet & Sour

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read paid

Today's release of November's Consumer Confidence Index showed that the labor market remains relatively tight. The percentage of respondents saying that jobs are plentiful remained high at 45.8%. That's still elevated even though it was mostly around 55.0% last year. This series closely tracks the job openings series in the JOLTS report, which will come out tomorrow for October (chart). The Fed

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Nov. 28-Dec. 2

Nov 27, 2022 2 min read paid

We hope you had a chance to relax with your family and friends and to recharge your batteries during the Thanksgiving holiday. We did. The big question that will be answered this week is whether the labor market remains charged up. There may be some signs that it is slowing given layoffs in the tech industry and the modest upturn in initial unemployment claims in recent weeks.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 31-November 4

Oct 29, 2022 1 min read Featured

It's yet another Fed week. On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to announce another 75bps hike to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. That would make the fourth consecutive hike of that magnitude. Fed Chair Powell will have to acknowledge that the federal funds rate is now further into restrictive territory and will be even more so come the FOMC’s December meeting, when the rate is

Ed Yardeni

Good News Bears

Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by the Bank of England seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later.

Ed Yardeni

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