GDP

Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated

Jan 26, 2023 2 min read

The headlines in the financial press today suggested that Q4's real GDP was strong. On closer inspection, it was relatively weak and consistent with our view that the economy has been in a "rolling recession" since early last year when the Fed started to tighten monetary policy. Real GDP rose 2.9% (saar) following 3.2% during Q3 (chart). However, real final sales of domestic product

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27

Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer look

Ed Yardeni

What Are We Rooting For?

Dec 22, 2022 2 min read

On Tuesday, the stock market sold off on fears of a hard landing. On Wednesday, the market rallied on better-than-expected earnings reports from Nike and FedEx and better-than-expected consumer confidence. Today, the market sold off on news that the labor market remains tight, raising fears of higher-for-longer Fed rate hiking. On the other hand, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, released today, was very weak. After the close yesterday, Micron

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Higher For Longer

Dec 14, 2022 1 min read paid

The FOMC provided its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) today after the committee announced a 50bps rate hike to a range of 4.25%-4.50% (table). At his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that that the rate is now restrictive, but not restrictive enough.

Ed Yardeni

Fed Stays On Tightening Course

Sep 21, 2022 2 min read

The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during his presser today the main points he made in his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August. He stressed that monetary policy may have to be restrictive for a while to bring inflation down, and that the process may be painful. There wasn'

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Today's GDP Indicators

Jul 27, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Jul 26, 2022 1 min read

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker. July's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) continued to decline in July as it has been since mid-2021 (down to 95.7), led by its falling expectations component (down to 65.3) (chart below). The current conditions component edged down in July,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022

Jul 24, 2022 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation. In addition, the latest FOMC statement, released Wednesday, will probably announce a 75bps rate hike. Now consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

A Growth Recession?

Jul 15, 2022 2 min read paid

Following today's retail sales and industrial production reports, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised real GDP growth down to -1.5% (saar) during Q2 from -1.2%. Real consumption spending was lowered from 1.9% to 1.5%, while gross private investment now shows a decline of -13.8% instead of -13.7%. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales has

Ed Yardeni

May's Retail Sales Depressed Q2's Real GDP

Jun 16, 2022 2 min read

May's retail sales was weak in current dollars (-0.3% m/m) and even weaker in real dollars (-1.6%). The question is whether consumers have more than satisfied their post-lockdown, pent-up demand for goods, and are now spending more on services? Consider the following: (1) The three rounds of stimulus checks provided by Uncle Sam (actually Uncles Don and Joe) during the pandemic certainly stimulated retail sales.

Ed Yardeni

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