Inflation

The Economic Week Ahead Jan. 9-13

Jan 8, 2023 1 min read

The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season starts this week with the big money center banks. They are unlikely to surprise investors. Their managements may once again warn, as they have in the past, that a consumer-led recession is likely this year. That's old news, and the markets aren't likely to react to it. Besides, if the banks expect a recession, why haven't they been adding

Ed Yardeni

Happy CPI Inflation Surprise Coming Jan. 12?

Dec 29, 2022 2 min read paid

The stock market could start to discount the possibility of a lower-than-expected December CPI report, which will be released on January 12. This prediction doesn't come with a money back guarantee. However, here are some clues suggesting that inflation may be falling faster than widely expected:

Ed Yardeni

Regional Puzzle Pieces Showing Slowing Economy & Inflation

Dec 28, 2022 2 min read

Almost everyone working on Wall Street is on vacation, except for the bears. They've been munching on stock prices, especially those of some of the MegaCaps like Tesla and Apple. There was a Santa Claus rally, sort of, when the S&P 500 climbed 14% from October 12 through November 30. But it has fizzled since then as investors fretted about further Fed tightening and a recession

Ed Yardeni

The No-Landing Scenario

Dec 23, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Fireworks Before Christmas?

Dec 20, 2022 2 min read

Santa is on his back foot. Fed Chair Powell's presser was hawkish last Wednesday. Thursday's batch of economic indicators seemed to support the hard-landing scenario. Could the Santa Claus rally make a comeback before Christmas despite the Grinch at the Fed? It could, depending on November's personal income report to be released on Friday. We think that it will confirm that inflation is moderating

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Higher For Longer

Dec 14, 2022 1 min read paid

The FOMC provided its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) today after the committee announced a 50bps rate hike to a range of 4.25%-4.50% (table). At his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that that the rate is now restrictive, but not restrictive enough.

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Peaked During June & Continues to Moderate

Dec 13, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices soared this morning on November's better-than-expected inflation news, but gave back much of the gain as investors realized that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might remain hawkish at his press conferencce tomorrow becuase inflation remains too high. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 4019, just below its 200-day moving average of 4025. The CPI rose 7.1% y/y in November, a slowdown

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Dec. 12-16

Dec 11, 2022 1 min read paid

All we want for Christmas is a lower-than-expected November CPI (Tue.) and a less hawkish press conference (Wed.) by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Santa Claus rally depends on this seasonally happy scenario. The week ahead starts with the NY Fed's November survey of consumer expectations (Mon.). The recent drop in gasoline prices should moderate inflationary expectations. November's NFIB small business survey (Tue.) should provide additional

Ed Yardeni

PPI Inflation Is Moderating

Dec 10, 2022 1 min read paid

On Friday, we learned that November’s headline PPI inflation rate rose 0.3% m/m, higher than the 0.2% expected, and October’s increase was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. The good news is that the y/y comparisons showed that the PPI final demand inflation rate peaked at 11.7% during March and fell to 7.4% during November, the lowest since May 2021.

Ed Yardeni

Fork In The Road

Dec 7, 2022 1 min read paid

It was another day of recession jitters in the stock market as the CEOs of Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported that they are seeing slowing consumer spending and borrowing. That may be so, but there wasn't any evidence of a slowdown in October's consumer credit data released by the Fed today. Total consumer credit rose $27.1 billion in October, up from a revised

Ed Yardeni

Yearend Jitters

Dec 6, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has the jitters as investors worry that the economy may be too strong and too weak at the same time. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell because November's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was stronger than expected (chart). Investors concluded that the economy may be too strong requiring the Fed to raise interest rates still higher, increasing the risk of a recession. Today, stock prices

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Dec. 5-Dec. 9

Dec 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's always nice to get a break from the Federal Open Mouth Committee's chattering. The FOMC participants' blackout period started yesterday and will last through Friday, December 15.

Ed Yardeni

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