Inflation

PPI Inflation Is Moderating

Dec 10, 2022 1 min read paid

On Friday, we learned that November’s headline PPI inflation rate rose 0.3% m/m, higher than the 0.2% expected, and October’s increase was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. The good news is that the y/y comparisons showed that the PPI final demand inflation rate peaked at 11.7% during March and fell to 7.4% during November, the lowest since May 2021.

Ed Yardeni

Fork In The Road

Dec 7, 2022 1 min read paid

It was another day of recession jitters in the stock market as the CEOs of Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported that they are seeing slowing consumer spending and borrowing. That may be so, but there wasn't any evidence of a slowdown in October's consumer credit data released by the Fed today. Total consumer credit rose $27.1 billion in October, up from a revised

Ed Yardeni

Yearend Jitters

Dec 6, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has the jitters as investors worry that the economy may be too strong and too weak at the same time. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell because November's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was stronger than expected (chart). Investors concluded that the economy may be too strong requiring the Fed to raise interest rates still higher, increasing the risk of a recession. Today, stock prices

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Dec. 5-Dec. 9

Dec 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's always nice to get a break from the Federal Open Mouth Committee's chattering. The FOMC participants' blackout period started yesterday and will last through Friday, December 15.

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing

Dec 1, 2022 2 min read

The bears disparaged yesterday's stock market rally claiming that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution was hawkish and didn't justify the market's bullish spin. We believe that the bulls correctly perceive that inflation peaked this summer and were relieved to hear Powell say that the Fed might be willing to let inflation subside without pushing the economy into a

Ed Yardeni

Sweet & Sour

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read paid

Today's release of November's Consumer Confidence Index showed that the labor market remains relatively tight. The percentage of respondents saying that jobs are plentiful remained high at 45.8%. That's still elevated even though it was mostly around 55.0% last year. This series closely tracks the job openings series in the JOLTS report, which will come out tomorrow for October (chart). The Fed

Ed Yardeni

On A Wing & A Prayer

Nov 17, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Ups & Downs Of Inflation

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

We certainly aren’t out of the inflation woods yet, but we do seem to be heading in the right direction to get out of this dark forest. Let’s review the latest batch of inflation indicators, starting with two disappointing ones: (1) Inflation expectations uptick. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October survey of inflation expectations of Americans. It headed in the wrong way,

Ed Yardeni

Small Business Owners Have Some Bad News

Nov 8, 2022 1 min read

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its October survey of small business owners today. They remain pessimistic about the general business outlook. They are still struggling to find workers and to keep them. In any event, their labor costs are rising rapidly and forcing them to raise their prices. They've been sucked into the economy's wage-price spiral. During October, 32% of small business owners

Ed Yardeni

Third Year of Presidential Cycle Is Bullish

Nov 8, 2022 1 min read paid Featured

We previously observed that the stock market has a strong tendency to perform well following midterm elections irrespective of the actual election outcome. Since 1942, during each of the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month periods following each of the 20 midterm elections, the S&P 500 was up on average by 7.6%, 14.1%, and 14.9%. Of the 60 observations, only three of them were negative. But none

Ed Yardeni

Economic Week Ahead, November 7-11

Nov 5, 2022 1 min read paid

You can access a “live” version of the calendar below--with links to our automatically updated charts for most of the indicators shown--at this link on our website; bookmark it for easy access. Financial market participants have freaked out about the CPI during most of the previous months this year. Will they do so again over October's CPI (released on Thu.)? Maybe not this time. We expect further signs

Ed Yardeni

PMI Prices-Paid Indexes Predicting Falling Inflation

Nov 5, 2022 1 min read

Rapidly rising inflation since early last year has forced the Fed to raise interest rates significantly this year. That's been bad news for stock and bond investors, particularly this year. From the end of the Great Financial Crisis through the end of the Great Virus Crisis (i.e., 2009-2021), the winning investment strategy was to own both assets. Investors' mantra was: "Don't fight the

Ed Yardeni

Page 17 of 23