Technicals

Market Call: Melting Up?

Jul 2, 2023 2 min read paid

Growing confidence in the resilience of the economy has been one of the main reasons why the stock market has been so strong since October 12, with the S&P 500 up 24.4%, the Nasdaq up 32.4%, and the S&P 500 Transportation index up 21.0% since that date. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 1.22% at 4450.38 (chart). That&

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Fundamentals Good. Technicals Bad.

Jun 25, 2023 2 min read paid

In our previous QT (The Week Ahead), we observed that this week's economic indicators should be good for the stock and bond markets, confirming that the economy is still growing while inflation is continuing to moderate. Industry analysts seem to agree with us as their S&P 500 forward earnings turned more optimistic on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings recently (chart). However, in coming

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bad Breadth Still An Issue

May 21, 2023 2 min read paid

Will the stock market rally broaden? If it doesn't do so, will the rally fade? Below, Joe Feshbach offers his opinion from a trader's perspective. In our opinion, concerns about the market's bad breadth is just another brick in the wall of worry that the stock market has been climbing since the bear market bottomed on October 12, 2022. It has been widely noted

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Breadth Question

May 14, 2023 2 min read paid

They are back in their saddles again. The Magnificent 8 (a.k.a., the MegaCap-8) have been leading the stock market higher again. They've regained much of the market cap share they lost during last year's bear market, especially in recent weeks. They currently account for 24.7% of the S&P 500 index and 46.5% of the S&P 500 Growth index

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: May Is Coming

Apr 30, 2023 3 min read

Tomorrow will be May 1. We all know that April showers bring May flowers. There's also an old adage that advises stock investors to go away in May and come back in October. It worked last year, though January was the right month to go away. The first part of this adage often worked. The problem is that the second part has been less reliable. Sometimes, when the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 23, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 has been remarkably quiet over the past couple of weeks just below its February 2 high and above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). The earnings season started well with better-than-expected results from the major banks. Investors may be marking time waiting to see if Fed officials will proceed with the widely expected 25bps hike in the federal funds rate at the May 2-3 meeting

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 18, 2023 2 min read

We remain convinced that the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% since then (table below). Every sector of the S&P 500 is up since then. Even the Financials sector is up 10.3% despite the recent banking crisis. We are still expecting to see the S&P 500 rise to 4600 by the end of

Ed Yardeni

Inflation, the Fed & Too Much Happiness

Apr 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell slightly today despite the better-than-expected March CPI data this morning. Inflation continues to moderate. The headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.0% y/y in February to 5.0% in March. However, the core rate edged up from 5.5% to 5.6%, but slowing rent inflation is likely to cool this rate in coming months. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 10, 2023 2 min read

The tug of war between the bulls and the bears has been at a standstill recently with the S&P 500 holding above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). That's quite impressive considering the banking crisis that started on March 10 when SVB imploded. Some observers (including us) think that the Fed Put is back. This time the Fed is shoring up the banking system with a

Ed Yardeni

Bad Breadth Again

Mar 28, 2023 1 min read

The ratio of the equal-weighted to market-cap-weighted S&P 500 stock price indexes is an interesting measure of market breadth. It is available daily since 1990 (chart). Based on this limited period, we can see that the ratio tends to rise following recessions and to peak before recessions. It bottoms just before or during recessions. The same pattern seems to apply to this ratio during bull and bear markets

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 26, 2023 2 min read

Bond investors are having fun again. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield peaked last year at 4.25% on October 24. It was down to 3.38% on Friday. Most of this decline occurred since the start of the current banking crisis on March 9 (chart). Bond investors have been waiting for something to break in the financial system since last summer when the yield curve inverted. They are betting

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 18, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at 3916.64 on Friday, just above where it closed at the end of last year (chart). We asked Joe Feshbach for his latest trading thoughts. He observes: "The market doesn’t need these premature rallies. They only serve to prolong the correction as negative sentiment doesn’t have time to intensify. Surprisingly, the daily put/call ratio (PCR) fell way to quickly

Ed Yardeni

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Market Call: Melting Up?

Market Call: Fundamentals Good. Technicals Bad.

Market Call: Bad Breadth Still An Issue

Market Call: The Breadth Question

Market Call: May Is Coming

Market Call

Market Call

Inflation, the Fed & Too Much Happiness

Market Call

Bad Breadth Again

Market Call

Market Call