Market Call

Market Call: May Is Coming

Apr 30, 2023 3 min read

Tomorrow will be May 1. We all know that April showers bring May flowers. There's also an old adage that advises stock investors to go away in May and come back in October. It worked last year, though January was the right month to go away. The first part of this adage often worked. The problem is that the second part has been less reliable. Sometimes, when the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Performance Derby: Two Good Days

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read

Today and Monday were two good days for the bulls. The question is whether the 5.7% jump in the S&P 500 is just a mini relief rally in a major bear market, or a sign that the worst is over. We are inclined to sit on the fence with our trading-range outlook for the rest of the year. We think that the range is between the August

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back Above 3666, BBR Under 1.00

Sep 28, 2022 1 min read paid

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell below the June 16 low of 3666 to 3647. Today, it bounced back above that devilish number to 3719. The good news was that a major central bank was forced to pivot by the Bond Vigilantes. On Monday and Tuesday, the foreign exchange value of the British pound and bond prices crashed, sending US bond yields soaring and stocks falling. Today, the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Less Risky

Sep 3, 2022 2 min read

The bears say that the 17.4% rally in the S&P 500 between June 16 and August 16 was a short-covering rally. Now that the index is down 8.8% from its recent high, they say the bear market isn't over and will soon take out its recent low. The bulls (including us) believe that the latest bear market's bottom will hold, and won&

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Risk Off

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The stock market is overbought. Since June 16, the S&P 500 is up 15% including its 1.2% decline last week back to 4228, failing to rise above its 200-day moving average, which was 4306 on Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq is up 19% after giving back 2% last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up 41bps from a recent low of 2.

Ed Yardeni

Aug 14, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has been rallying since June 16 on mounting expectations that the most widely expected recession of all times might be a no-show and that inflation is peaking. July's strong payroll employment report and peakish CPI and PPI readings suggest that the cat is out of the bag. That's confirmed by several technical indicators: (1) Breadth. On Friday, over 90% of the S&

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

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Market Call: May Is Coming

S&P 500 Performance Derby: Two Good Days

Market Call: Back Above 3666, BBR Under 1.00

Market Call: Less Risky

Market Call: Risk Off

Market Call