S&P 500

For the Bulls, The Suspense Is Hard to Bear

Aug 15, 2023 2 min read members

The Bond Vigilantes kept the suspense going today. They closed the 10-year Treasury bond yield at 4.22% (chart). It's widely feared that if it rises above 4.25% (i.e., last year's high), the next stop could be 4.50% and even 5.00% if the yield curve disinverts with the long end rising up to meet the short end. The stock market has been

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Bond Vigilantes Are Saddling Up

Aug 13, 2023 3 min read paid

As we anticipated, the S&P 500 has dropped to its 50-day moving average (dma) on Friday (chart). It is down 2.7% from its bull market high of 4588.96 on July 31. Leading the way down has been the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (-7.0%). Weighing on this sector's valuation multiple has been the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Hot But Sunny

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market may be too hot, but the outlook for the economy remains sunny. There are signs that the hottest sectors of the market may be starting to cool off a bit, while the coolest sectors are warming up. It's time for the laggards to be leaders for a while. In other words, Information Technology and Communication Services stocks might chill, while Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Ed Yardeni

AI Driving Market Meltup

Jul 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's economic indicators were weak, but the stock market rose to yet another new bull market high boosted by better-than-expected earnings from some of the big banks. Also leading the market higher was Microsoft, which rose 4.4% to a new record high. The company introduced Copilot to its suite of Office software. The $30-per-month subscription service adds AI which can design presentations, offer writing prompts, summarize meetings,

Ed Yardeni

Nothing To Fear But Fearless Investors

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 climbed to a new bull market high today of 4472 (chart). It is now 10.6% above its 200-day moving average. It is climbing along the upper end of its bull-market channel. Today's CPI news helped to alleviate fears that persistent inflation might force the Fed to persist with rate hiking resulting in a recession. Inflation seems to be more transitory than was

Ed Yardeni

Running of the Bulls

Jul 5, 2023 1 min read paid

Are there too many bulls? The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) compiled by Investors Intelligence jumped to 3.00 during the July 4 week, up from 2.69 the previous week (chart). It is the highest reading since the bull run from March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022. The bull then got gored during the bear market through October 12, 2022. During the latest week, the bullish percentage rose to

Ed Yardeni

Leading & Coincident Economic Indicators Are Contradictory

Jun 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during December 2021. It dropped 0.7% m/m in May and declined for the 14th month in a row, but there’s still little evidence the US is headed toward recession. Indeed, the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) edged up by 0.2% m/m during May to yet another record high (chart). The Conference Board,

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Blue Angels Are Climbing Again

Jun 12, 2023 1 min read paid

Our Blue Angels analysis multiplies the weekly forward earnings of the S&P 500/400/600 by forward P/Es of 10-22 in increments of 2 (chart). We then can see how the three stock price indexes are tracking their Blue Angels, which always fly in a parallel formation. Forward earnings is the time-weighted average of industry analysts' consensus expectation for earnings during the current year and the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Young Bull

Jun 11, 2023 2 min read paid

We have some good news and some bad news for the bulls. The good news is that the S&P 500 is up 20.0% since October 12, which is widely viewed as the definition of a bull market (table). The bad news is that a picture of a bull is featured in the latest Barron's cover story titled, "Don't Fear the Bull Market.

Ed Yardeni

Rally Could Broaden Led By Financials

Jun 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rally narrowed significantly when the banking crisis clobbered the S&P 500's Financials sector in March (chart). The bears have been saying that this is a bearish development. We've been thinking that the rally could broaden once investors stop worrying about which banks are vulnerable to deposit runs and loan losses. Instead, we've been suggesting that investors should be focusing

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: MegaCap-8's Latest MAMU

Jun 4, 2023 3 min read paid

We coined the acronym “MAMU” in our May 16, 2013 Morning Briefing. We wrote: “After the widely dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’ scare turned out to be a non-event at the start of 2013, [stock investors] were tired of being anxious that the bull would get tripped by a bear.” We opined: “Perhaps now that investors are no longer fearful that the end is near, all the liquidity pumped into the financial

Ed Yardeni

Sitting Bull

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The bull market seems to be taking a rest. The S&P 500 has stalled just below 4200 since the start of May (chart). That's good considering that several vocal bears predicted that the S&P 500 would fall back down towards its October 12 low during the first half of this year. However, those who recommended going away in May (as the old adage says)

Ed Yardeni

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