Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 13-17

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read

The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week. It is having an immediate impact on energy prices in the United States. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices up again at the start of the week. The impact on the US inflation pipeline remains the dominant macroeconomic theme, ahead of Tuesday's March PPI release. A relatively quiet week on the economic

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

FINANCIALS: Private Credit Fears Creating Attractive Values

Apr 11, 2026 3 min read

The big money center banks will report their Q1 earnings this coming week. They are included in the S&P 500 Financials sector, which has been the worst-performing one in the S&P 500 this year to date, down 7.3% through April 10, compared with a broadly flat market over this period (chart). One of the major culprits is the gathering storm in private credit. It

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?

Apr 9, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, Reuters reports that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain within its territorial waters as they passed through the Strait to avoid mines. As we've noted previously, geopolitical crises tend to provide buying opportunities in the stock market. Sure enough: Following a 9.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'

Apr 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war has been replaced by the fog of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Negotiators for the two countries will meet in Islamabad on Friday. They met many times before without averting the war. The pounding of Iran by the US and Israel has failed to topple Iran's regime, which still seems to have firm command and control of the country despite the decapitation

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market

Apr 8, 2026 1 min read paid

Last week's employment report was widely interpreted as good because jobs growth rebounded and the unemployment rate dropped. Dr Ed and Elias disagree. Our inflation-adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as inflation surged, a bad sign. Moreover, the jobs growth required to keep unemployment stable (the "breakeven rate") has collapsed, so a dropping unemployment rate must be evaluated in that context. Both labor supply and labor

Ed Yardeni

Apocalypse Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.

Apr 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Two hours before his latest deadline, President Donald Trump canceled Obliteration Day. He agreed tonight to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal was brokered by Pakistan. Trump confirmed the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiating a permanent peace agreement. Israel separately agreed to suspend its bombing during negotiations. The market reaction was swift. Crude oil prices tumbled, while S&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E

Apr 5, 2026 5 min read paid

Last Monday saw the S&P 500 down 9.1% from its January 27 high, which we believe marks the trough of the latest pullback, for now. That was our call on Tuesday. The next two days could make or break our call. Today, President Donald Trump issued a final, profanely worded ultimatum, setting a firm deadline for what he is calling "Power Plant Day." He specified

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 6-10

Apr 5, 2026 3 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East, though a heavy slate of data releases—including the FOMC March Minutes, February personal income, and March CPI—will compete for attention. President Trump confirmed Wednesday night that the United States could conclude its involvement in the Iran War within two to three weeks, providing an exit ramp from a conflict that has roiled energy markets since

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?

Apr 2, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US would exit in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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