Sentiment

Market Call: Running Into Resistance & Bond Vigilantes

Aug 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news is that almost everyone agrees that an imminent recession isn't very likely. That reduces the downside concerns about corporate earnings. But it increases the downside potential for the stock market's valuation multiple if the bond yield continues to rise. The Bond Vigilantes may be saddling up in response to the widening federal deficit. They don't seem to mind budget deficits when

Ed Yardeni

Up Or Down?

Jul 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Young bull markets tend to be widely hated. That's because many investors who sold during the preceding bear market fail to get back in at the bottom. Quite a few of them might have sold near or even at the bottom. The current young bull market is no exception. So why is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) so high? It was 3.01 during the latest

Ed Yardeni

Nothing To Fear But Fearless Investors

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 climbed to a new bull market high today of 4472 (chart). It is now 10.6% above its 200-day moving average. It is climbing along the upper end of its bull-market channel. Today's CPI news helped to alleviate fears that persistent inflation might force the Fed to persist with rate hiking resulting in a recession. Inflation seems to be more transitory than was

Ed Yardeni

Running of the Bulls

Jul 5, 2023 1 min read paid

Are there too many bulls? The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) compiled by Investors Intelligence jumped to 3.00 during the July 4 week, up from 2.69 the previous week (chart). It is the highest reading since the bull run from March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022. The bull then got gored during the bear market through October 12, 2022. During the latest week, the bullish percentage rose to

Ed Yardeni

Market Not Fazed By Bearish Fed and Nvidia Talk

Jun 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market held up remarkably well yesterday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell's warning that "there's more restriction coming" because the labor market remains too strong. He suggested that 25-bps rate hikes are still on the table for the next two meetings of the FOMC. Powell spoke during a monetary policy session in Sintra, Portugal, which is famous for its huge crashing ocean waves

Ed Yardeni

Too Many Smiley-Face Balloons?

Jun 21, 2023 2 min read paid

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update on his view of the market from a trader’s perspective: “Breadth has improved for the S&P 500. But the cumulative advance/decline line for the Nasdaq is a galaxy away from confirming the strength in the S&P 500. Sentiment is way too complacent here. Friday had the lowest put/call ratio in many months. Yes, it’s always

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bulls Gaining Ground In Tug-of-War With Bears

Jun 19, 2023 3 min read paid

The bulls continue to gain ground in our tug-of-war with the bears. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 is now up 23.3% since October 12 to 4425.84 through last Thursday. That was the highest level since April 20, 2022. It was only 7.7% below the January 3, 2022 record high. (2) Measures of breadth are improving. The percentage of S&P 500 companies

Ed Yardeni

Rally Could Broaden Led By Financials

Jun 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rally narrowed significantly when the banking crisis clobbered the S&P 500's Financials sector in March (chart). The bears have been saying that this is a bearish development. We've been thinking that the rally could broaden once investors stop worrying about which banks are vulnerable to deposit runs and loan losses. Instead, we've been suggesting that investors should be focusing

Ed Yardeni

Sitting Bull

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The bull market seems to be taking a rest. The S&P 500 has stalled just below 4200 since the start of May (chart). That's good considering that several vocal bears predicted that the S&P 500 would fall back down towards its October 12 low during the first half of this year. However, those who recommended going away in May (as the old adage says)

Ed Yardeni

Raising Odds of Soft Landing

May 24, 2023 1 min read paid

Beware: Bullish sentiment is improving, which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. On Tuesday, Rick Rieder, who is BlackRock’s chief bond strategist, said “I think the U.S. economy’s in much better shape than people give credit.” That's been our position for a while. In a May 23 report, the strategists at Evercore ISI reiterated that a hard landing is their base case with a 60%

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded

Ed Yardeni

Sentimental Journey: Mixed Feelings

Apr 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed for the second week to 1.94 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year—after falling the prior two weeks from 1.83 to 1.38 (chart). Bullish sentiment increased for the second week, jumping to 48.6% this week, equaling the end-of-January peak, which was the highest since the end of 2021. Bulls outnumbered bears for the 20th consecutive week.

Ed Yardeni

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