Ed Yardeni

Bull Market or Rally in a Bear Market?

May 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Our short answer to the question posed in the title: "Bull market." The S&P 500 rose to a new high today of 4198.05 for 2023 taking out the February 2 closing high of 4179.76 (chart). The market has climbed a Wall of Worry thanks to Wall Street's Worriers, who've predicted that the banking and the debt ceiling crises could make

Ed Yardeni

Misleading Economic Indicator?

May 18, 2023 2 min read

Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell in April for the 13th straight month, sinking 0.6% m/m and 8.6% over the period to the lowest level since September 2020 (chart). The LEI, which peaked at a record high last February, has led recessions by 12 months on average. While the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Bad & Good Breadth

May 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Joe and I have recently observed that the S&P 500 has a breadth problem. This is a widely recognized problem by most technicians who track the stock market. The good news is that a more fundamental measure of earnings breadth is performing well. Consider the following: (1) If we are in a bull market that started on October 12, 2022 as we still believe, our thesis isn’t

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/17/23

May 17, 2023 1 min read paid

The Fed sought to allay fears of bank runs when it provided backstop funds to banks. Consider the fears allayed—so far, at least. The disintermediation threat hasn’t descended; it hasn’t wrought a credit crunch, a recession, or widespread economic destruction. Now if fears aren’t stoked by further talk of bank runs, maybe, just maybe, the threat will go away. … Also: The high-inflation saga‘s loose ends

Ed Yardeni

Progress In Debt Ceiling Talks Lifts Stock Prices

May 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Stock prices are up this morning on news that both the Democrats and the Republicans want to get a deal done on the debt ceiling issue. “I think at the end of the day we do not have a debt default,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNBC in a “Squawk Box” interview this morning. President Joe Biden echoed that sentiment later in remarks from the White House: “We’re going

Ed Yardeni

No Hard Feelings

May 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market fell today on Home Depot's disappointing guidance. Consumers fixed up their homes during the pandemic when social distancing restrictions kept many of them at home. By late last year and early this year, consumers pivoted from purchasing goods to spending on services. In other words, HD's y/y comps are challenging as housing-related retail sales have been weakening in recent months (chart). Today&

Ed Yardeni

New York's Regional Business Survey Shows Lots of Weakness

May 15, 2023 1 min read paid

Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It was released this morning. The headline general business conditions index dropped 43.0 points to -31.8. New orders and shipments plunged after rising significantly last month. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and inventories contracted. Both employment and hours worked edged

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Breadth Question

May 14, 2023 2 min read paid

They are back in their saddles again. The Magnificent 8 (a.k.a., the MegaCap-8) have been leading the stock market higher again. They've regained much of the market cap share they lost during last year's bear market, especially in recent weeks. They currently account for 24.7% of the S&P 500 index and 46.5% of the S&P 500 Growth index

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 15-19

May 13, 2023 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with coincident and leading economic indicators. The most up-to-the-minute ones will be May 12 mortgage applications (Wed) and May 13 jobless claims (Thu). The former seems to be bottoming suggesting that April housing starts (Wed) and existing home sales (Thu) might surprise to the upside, or at least not on the downside (chart) On a four-week moving average basis, jobless claims have moved higher recently

Ed Yardeni

Yellen's Drop Dead Date

May 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Monday, May 1 that the United States could run out of money to pay its bills by June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit, putting pressure on President Biden and lawmakers to reach a swift agreement to avoid defaulting on the nation’s debt. In a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, she wrote: "After reviewing recent

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/10/23

May 10, 2023 1 min read paid

The stock market has been climbing since mid-October even though pessimism has prevailed among economists and stock market strategists. Today, we examine this “pandemic of pessimism”—how widespread it is, our perspective on the bearish case, what the Fed’s staff thinks is ahead for the US economy, and a few of the voices of doom. … We counter that the stock market’s trend is driven mostly by the earnings

Ed Yardeni

Credit Crunch Ahead?

May 9, 2023 2 min read

SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was released yesterday after the market's close. It showed that banks continued to tighten their lending standards following the banking crisis that started during the second week of March (chart). Yet the DJIA barely budged falling 56.88 points and the S&P 500 lost just

Ed Yardeni

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