Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 119)

Labor Market Tight. Goods Market Not So.

Feb 28, 2023 1 min read paid

The Fed would like to see fewer job openings to help moderate wage inflation. The time series is reported in the JOLTS report. January's update comes out March 8. It could jolt the Fed into remaining hawkish. That's because it is highly correlated with the The Conference Board's "jobs plentiful" series that came out today and that's been up two

Ed Yardeni

The Rent Is Too Damn High!

Feb 27, 2023 1 min read paid

As a result of the pandemic, the demand for single-family homes soared, and so did their prices. Rising mortgage rates last year clobbered affordability for first-time homebuyers, forcing them to rent. So tenant rent inflation soared from about 2.0% y/y in early 2021 to 8.6% in the CPI during January of this year (chart). Rising mortgage rates also reduced the supply of homes. Since many

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

Feb 26, 2023 1 min read

The economic indicators this week are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a rolling recession. Single-family housing is still in a recession. That's likely to be confirmed by January's pending existing home sales (Mon) and 2/24 mortgage applications (Wed). Manufacturing growth stalled last year through January. February's Dallas and Richmond Fed regional business surveys (Mon & Tue)--along with last

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Economy - Soft, Hard, Or No Landing?

Feb 25, 2023 4 min read paid

We think we coined “rolling recession” back in the mid-1980s to describe the economic slowdown that many feared would turn into an economy-wide recession. We think the phrase accurately describes the performance of the US economy since early last year. It’s similar to a “growth recession,” “mid-cycle slowdown,” and “soft landing” but includes the concept that different areas of the economy are experiencing the slowdowns at

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Feb 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 16.9% from last year’s low of 3577.03 on October 12, 2022 through this year’s high of 4179.76 on February 2 (chart). We still view last year’s low as the end of the bear market that started on January 3, 2022. We believe that the rally since then is the start of a new bull market, though we

Stephen Rybka

Two Too-Hot No-Landing Indicators Hit Markets

Feb 24, 2023 2 min read

The stock and bond markets reacted badly to today's stronger-than-expected personal income data and hotter-than-expected PCED. Is the economy experiencing an inflationary no-landing scenario? If so, Fed officials might conclude that the only way to bring inflation down is to push interest rates up until they cause a hard landing. More likely in our opinion is that these two indicators along with January&

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Feb 23, 2023 2 min read paid

Dividends are like plants. Both grow. But dividends can grow forever, while the size of plants is limited. Notwithstanding last year's bear market, S&P 500 dividends grew to a record high of $562.9 billion during 2022 (chart). Dividends tend to fall during recessions along with profits. There was no recession last year. There may not be one this year. Money invested in the S&

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/23

Feb 22, 2023 1 min read paid

What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public

Ed Yardeni

More Soft Landing Stats

Feb 22, 2023 2 min read paid

No boom, no bust. That describes yesterday's flash estimates for February's M-PMI and NM-PMI released by S&P Global. They both track the comparable series compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The flash M-PMI rose from 46.9 in January to 47.8 this month (chart). It suggests that the ISM's version of this index will uptick but

Ed Yardeni

Rent Inflation Is Moderating

Feb 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The CPI's rent of primary residence is showing no signs of peaking, rising to 8.6% y/y during January (chart). However, it is widely recognized that this measure is a laggard because it includes rents not only on new leases, but also outstanding ones. The market-based rent inflation indexes compiled by Zillow and ApartmentList have been plunging from around 17% a year ago to 6.9%

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 21-24

Feb 20, 2023 2 min read

The holiday-shortened week is a light one for economic indicators. The BIG number will be January's PCED inflation rate, which will be released along with personal income on Friday. The month's CPI was higher than expected , though the y/y inflation rate continued to disinflate. The PCED inflation rate tends to be lower than the CPI inflation rate (chart). That's because rent of

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed Is Fighting the Markets

Feb 18, 2023 3 min read paid

Fed officials have indicated that they’d rather see stock and bond prices fall than continue to rise, as they’ve been doing since October of last year. In their opinion, financial markets’ strength has eased financial conditions in the economy, offsetting some of their efforts to tighten financial conditions to bring inflation down. Joe and I question their logic. In our opinion, the drop in bond yields since late

Ed Yardeni

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