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Is The Fed Put Back?
The financial markets seem to believe that the Fed Put is back. The recent batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised…
Recession
69 posts
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Time To Get Some Worry Beads?
Today's batch of economic indicators was relatively upbeat. June's JOLTS report showed that jobs remained plentiful.…
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The Urge To Merge
When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the…
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Jamie Dimon Ambiguates About A Recession
Some of the largest banks in the country— JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup—kicked off the official start to…
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The Economic Week Ahead: July 17-21
The good news is that the Federal Open Mouth Committee is prohibited from talking publicly now until July 27. That&…
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May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak
A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell…
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Raising Odds of Soft Landing
Beware: Bullish sentiment is improving, which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. On Tuesday, Rick Rieder, who is BlackRock’s…
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Misleading Economic Indicator?
Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading…
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New York's Regional Business Survey Shows Lots of Weakness
Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey…
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Credit Crunch Ahead?
SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze.
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion…
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The Bears' Two Favorite Charts
To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&…
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Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing
The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday,…
