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May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak
A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell…
Recession
64 posts
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Raising Odds of Soft Landing
Beware: Bullish sentiment is improving, which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. On Tuesday, Rick Rieder, who is BlackRock’s…
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Misleading Economic Indicator?
Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators…
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New York's Regional Business Survey Shows Lots of Weakness
Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey…
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Credit Crunch Ahead?
SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze.
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was…
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The Bears' Two Favorite Charts
To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&P…
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Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing
The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday, May…
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No Boom, No Bust
Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is…
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Powell's Plateau
The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate…
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Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators
The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12, 2022, which…
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Inventories Depress GDP
Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4,…
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Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder
The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums…
