paid Recession • 1 min read May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell…
paid Recession • 1 min read Raising Odds of Soft Landing Beware: Bullish sentiment is improving, which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. On Tuesday, Rick Rieder, who is BlackRock’s…
public Leading Indicators • 2 min read Misleading Economic Indicator? Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators…
paid Surveys • 1 min read New York's Regional Business Survey Shows Lots of Weakness Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey…
public Banks • 2 min read Credit Crunch Ahead? SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was…
paid S&P 500 • 2 min read The Bears' Two Favorite Charts To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&P…
paid Employment • 2 min read Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday, May…
paid Commodities • 2 min read No Boom, No Bust Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is…
public Fed • 2 min read Powell's Plateau The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate…
paid Consumer • 2 min read Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12, 2022, which…
public GDP • 1 min read Inventories Depress GDP Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4,…
public US Economy • 3 min read Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums…