paid Recession • 2 min read Time To Get Some Worry Beads? Today's batch of economic indicators was relatively upbeat. June's JOLTS report showed that jobs remained plentiful. July's M-PMI suggests that…
paid Fed • 2 min read The Urge To Merge When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the problem. We…
public Banks • 2 min read Jamie Dimon Ambiguates About A Recession Some of the largest banks in the country— JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup—kicked off the official start to…
paid Week Ahead • 2 min read The Economic Week Ahead: July 17-21 The good news is that the Federal Open Mouth Committee is prohibited from talking publicly now until July 27. That's…
paid Recession • 1 min read May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell…
paid Recession • 1 min read Raising Odds of Soft Landing Beware: Bullish sentiment is improving, which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. On Tuesday, Rick Rieder, who is BlackRock’s…
public Leading Indicators • 2 min read Misleading Economic Indicator? Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators…
paid Surveys • 1 min read New York's Regional Business Survey Shows Lots of Weakness Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey…
public Banks • 2 min read Credit Crunch Ahead? SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was…
paid S&P 500 • 2 min read The Bears' Two Favorite Charts To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&P…
paid Employment • 2 min read Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday, May…
paid Commodities • 2 min read No Boom, No Bust Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is…