Archive

Market Call: Young Bull

Jun 11, 2023 2 min read paid

We have some good news and some bad news for the bulls. The good news is that the S&P 500 is up 20.0% since October 12, which is widely viewed as the definition of a bull market (table). The bad news is that a picture of a bull is featured in the latest Barron's cover story titled, "Don't Fear the Bull Market.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 12-16

Jun 10, 2023 2 min read paid

This will be a head spinning week. It could also be another rollercoaster ride in the financial markets. Maybe we should go on vacation and come back on Friday following the deluge of economic indicators from Monday through Thursday, and a FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to boot. May's CPI will be released on Tuesday morning just as the FOMC convenes for a two-day meeting, which will

Ed Yardeni

China's Post-Lockdown Recovery & Stimulus Disappoint

Jun 8, 2023 2 min read paid

The Chinese government started to lift its pandemic lockdown restrictions in early December last year. The economic rebound has been weaker than widely expected. Indeed, China's imports have been flat at a record high since mid-2021 and have remained so through May of this year (chart). Furthermore, inflation has been nonexistent as the Chinese CPI rose just 0.1% y/y in April, while the country's

Ed Yardeni

Rally Could Broaden Led By Financials

Jun 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rally narrowed significantly when the banking crisis clobbered the S&P 500's Financials sector in March (chart). The bears have been saying that this is a bearish development. We've been thinking that the rally could broaden once investors stop worrying about which banks are vulnerable to deposit runs and loan losses. Instead, we've been suggesting that investors should be focusing

Ed Yardeni

Onshoring Is Happening Now. Don't Underestimate MAMA!

Jun 6, 2023 2 min read

Don't underestimate "MAMA," which stands for “Making America Manufacture Again.” Manufacturers, large and small, domestic and foreign, are tapping into the trillions of dollars of incentives available in the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to build factories in the US. They plan to make semiconductors, batteries, solar equipment, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen, among

Ed Yardeni

Oil's Slippery Slope

Jun 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The Saudis are kicking the barrel down the road. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced an extra 1 million barrel-a-day (mbd) supply cut in July following a tense OPEC+ meeting in Vienna over the weekend. “Others in the group pledged to maintain existing cuts until the end of 2024,” Bloomberg reported, “though Russia made no commitment to curb output further and the United Arab Emirates secured a higher

Ed Yardeni

Dr. Ed Answers Your Questions

Jun 4, 2023 1 min read

💡The following is a roundup of selected questions posted by members in the comment section of our QuickTakes. Oaul S: "The past 2 times recently that the M-PMI has been this low we were in a recession. Don't the present low numbers presage a recession on the horizon?" Dr. Ed: Good question. You are right. However, in our "rolling recession" scenario consumers have pivoted

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: MegaCap-8's Latest MAMU

Jun 4, 2023 3 min read paid

We coined the acronym “MAMU” in our May 16, 2013 Morning Briefing. We wrote: “After the widely dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’ scare turned out to be a non-event at the start of 2013, [stock investors] were tired of being anxious that the bull would get tripped by a bear.” We opined: “Perhaps now that investors are no longer fearful that the end is near, all the liquidity pumped into the financial

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, June 5-9

Jun 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a very light week for economic indicators. In addition, the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be silent until their blackout period ends after the FOMC meets on June 14 and 15. On the other hand, now that the debt ceiling deal was signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the US Treasury will flood the fixed income markets with lots of securities to refill its checking

Ed Yardeni

Retiring Boomers Have More Time & Money to Spend on Services

Jun 3, 2023 2 min read

Since early last year, many economists have been forecasting that consumers will retrench, causing a recession. They may be missing the spending boom driven by Baby Boomers. As more and more of them are retiring, they are spending more on travel (including airfare, accommodations, and cruises), eating out, and health care. Employment is expanding in all these areas of the labor market. The retired Baby Boomers may no longer be

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Smooth Sailing to Another 2023 High

Jun 1, 2023 2 min read paid

Hooray! The US government won't default on its debts. There are plenty of jobs. Unit-labor-cost inflation is moderating. The banking crisis is abating. The recession is still a no-show. Earnings were better than expected during Q1 and are probably bottoming during the current quarter. The FOMC likely will pause its rate hiking for at least one meeting. AI will boost productivity if it doesn't kill us.

Ed Yardeni

Sitting Bull

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The bull market seems to be taking a rest. The S&P 500 has stalled just below 4200 since the start of May (chart). That's good considering that several vocal bears predicted that the S&P 500 would fall back down towards its October 12 low during the first half of this year. However, those who recommended going away in May (as the old adage says)

Ed Yardeni